Guyana continues to outpace C’bean with rapid growth – World Bank

Guyana continues to stand out within the Caribbean region, recording exceptionally rapid and sustained Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a low debt to GDP ratio and a significant decline in overall inflation, driven by the scaling-up of the country’s offshore oil production.

This was reinforced by the World Bank on Wednesday in the presentation of its Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Economic Update, which has Guyana projected to grow by an impressive 16.3 per cent in 2026, followed by an even stronger expansion of 23.5 per cent in 2027.

The World Bank Report highlighted how Guyana’s booming oil sector is reshaping the economic landscape in the Caribbean. While countries heavily dependent on tourism have experienced moderating growth due to softer external demand and rising costs, Guyana’s resource-led expansion continues to boost the region’s overall economic outlook.

“In the Caribbean, Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026,” the report noted.

“Guyana stands out within the region, having recorded exceptionally rapid and sustained GDP growth since 2020, driven by the scaling-up of offshore oil production. This expansion has been accompanied by rising fiscal revenues, improved external balances, and a declining public debt-to-GDP ratio, although the pace of growth also underscores the importance of strengthening public investment management, building institutional capacity, and ensuring that oil wealth translates into broad-based and inclusive development.”

Alongside Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana is contributing to a widening divergence within the Caribbean. Described as “a dual-track outlook in the Caribbean”, the report notes that resource-rich producers are rapidly advancing while tourism-reliant economies continue to confront multiple challenges.

Fiscal discipline

According to the report, fiscal discipline remains a hallmark of Guyana’s growth story.
In both the 2025 and 2026 forecasts, Guyana’s Government debt as a share of GDP is among the lowest in the region. Projections for 2025 and 2026 indicate that Guyana’s public debt will remain well below 50 per cent of GDP, significantly lower than many regional peers.

This low debt burden signals strong revenue growth, higher investor confidence, and greater fiscal space to support infrastructure development and cushion against economic shocks.

“Highly indebted Caribbean economies continue to face challenges in achieving durable debt sustainability, while oil-producing countries such as Guyana confront the parallel task of managing revenue volatility and avoiding procyclicality as public finances expand rapidly,” the report notes.

Most countries in the Caribbean and Central America carry Government debt above 50 per cent of GDP. Several of the countries reach or exceed 90–100 per cent of GDP, indicating relatively high debt burdens. These include Dominica, St Vincent & the Grenadines, and Suriname.

Inflation trends in Guyana further reflect economic resilience. The country experienced elevated inflationary pressures around 2022 and 2023, driven by spikes in food and transport costs linked to global supply disruptions and energy price volatility. However, the country is now projected to see a significant decline in inflation. Total inflation is expected to stabilise around a moderate two to three per cent by 2026, with food inflation falling below five per cent and transport costs normalising. This easing of inflationary pressures is critical to sustaining consumer purchasing power and supporting continued economic expansion.

Despite these near-term successes, the World Bank cautions that managing the rapid growth requires strengthening public investment management and institutional capacity to ensure that the benefits of oil wealth translate into broad-based and inclusive development.
Long-term challenges such as productivity growth and labour mobility remain key issues not only for Guyana but also across the wider Caribbean region, the report stated.